Welcome to the first installment of "If I was a betting girl" (which I am by the way... did I mention I won $230 on Forrest's victory over Rampage?)! In this post I'll be discussing the odds on some upcoming fights that I find too hard to resist. Now mind you, when it comes to MMA I like to bet on the underdogs. First off, it makes it more fun and second I find it hard to lay down $100 to win $20 on a sport where anything can happen (see Matt Serra over GSP).
I decided after my win last weekend on Forrest vs Rampage to share my thoughts on upcoming fights for those of you looking for some help in placing your bets.
** These odds were taken from Sportsbook.com on 7/10/09.
Here we go, let's start with the July 19th UFC event feature Anderson Silva:
- Anderson Silva (-600) VS James Irvin (+400) - I have to put some money on Irvin here. This is Anderson Silva's first fight at light-heavyweight, so who knows how he'll adjust to the bigger and stronger opponent. Plus, Irvin is a guy that likes to stand up and bang so he always has a shot at landing something, and, he's got power in those punches. Although standing with Anderson Silva isn't always advised, when it's James Irvin at +400 I'll take some of that action.
- Brandon Vera (-625) VS Reese Andy (+425)- Vera is definitely the favorite in this fight, but Andy is a great wrestler and a very powerful fighter. He's the kind of fighter that could take Vera down, hold him there, and land some decent shots for 3 full rounds. Although it wouldn't make for a very exciting fight, it could produce a victory fo Andy. This is Vera's first fight down at 205, but he was never that big of a heavyweight so I don't see him having a huge size advantage over Andy. I think the odds on this are so skewed because it's Andy's first fight in the UFC, but he's 7-1 with 6 fights in the IFL and was a high caliber NCAA wrestler, so he's no newcomer to competition. If Andy can get the fight to the mat consistently, I think this is a great underdog bet.
On to UFC 87 in August:
- Brock Lesnar (-275) VS Heath Herring (+215)- To be honest, I'm not quite sure why Brock Lesnar, at 1-1 in his MMA career, is favored over Heath Herring at 28-13. I would be all over this. Heath has fought the best and toughest at heavyweight, and often made it very close. He's on a new strength and conditioning program and is coming off a victory over a very big and strong Cheick Kongo, so he knows how to fight bigger and strong opponents. Herring did have some problems with a wrestler when he lost to Jake O'Brien over a year ago, but I think his experience and toughness will win this fight for him. I don't think Brock has what it takes yet to compete with a veteran like Herring.
- GSP (-265) VS John Fitch (+205)- The odds on this one aren't "great" and GSP is the man, showing he can deal with wrestlers in his victory over Josh Koshchek, but I think Fitch has the talent to make this fight really close. For that reason, I wouldn't mind dropping some money on Fitch. This isn't as good of a bet as the others, but a gut feeling.
Affliction: Banned:
- Fedor Emelianeko (-450) VS Tim Sylvia (+300)- Yes, Fedor is considered by many to be the best heavyweight ever, and even the best pound-for-pound fighter ever. But Sylvia has serious reach and a very awkward style. We saw him beat up on Nogueira's face for a few rounds before being caught in a submission, so we know he can cause a fighter fits. Sylvia definitely has the ability to use his jab and create a very slow paced fight on the feet, and thus eake out a boring victory. But a boring victory at -300 when I've got money down is pretty exciting to me. Fedor hasn't fought a quality opponent in about 18 months (disclaimer - Matt Lindland is a quality fighter, but the size difference was a little silly), so look for him to have some rust when it comes to dealing with a quality fighter as awkward as Sylvia.
So there you go, installment #1 and some thoughts on good underdogs to lay some money on. You can let me know what you think by leaving a comment! I'd love to hear your thoughts.
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