MMA Hot Stuff

UFC 90: Odds on this weekends fights!

For those of you looking to place some money on this weekends fights, here are the latest odds (courtesy of SportsBook.com) and my opinions on the action!

Anderson Silva (-650) VS Patrick Cote (+450) - I don't bet against Anderson Silva, bottom line. He never ceases to amaze. After he manhandled Dan Henderson, I can't see anyone taking him out in the foreseeable future. However, laying down $650 to win $100 is a little too steep for me, especially given Cote's punching power, but I don't have enough confidence in Cote to warrant laying any money on him. I just don't see any betting value here.

Josh Koscheck (-160) VS Thiago Alves (+130) - With Koscheck taking this fight on two weeks notice and Alves having trained for Diego Sanchez the entire time, I'd have to put my money on Alves. Koscheck is a tough opponent and I'm sure will come in shape and with his improved stand up, but Alves has been on a tear lately and is a monster at welterweight. I'd have to go with Alves in this one, especially as the underdog. Not a huge amount of upside, but I'd lay the money down on Alves.

Sean Sherk (-270) VS Tyson Griffin (+210)- Sean Sherk comes in as a favorite, even after his lopsided loss to BJ Penn. Griffin comes in on a 4 fight win streak since losing to Frankie Edgar in 2007. He comes out of a great camp where he trains with great wrestlers, so Sherk's style shouldn't surprise him and I'd expect Griffin to be able to hang with Sherk's fast pace. Given this line, and the belief that Sherk's best days are behind him, I'd put my money on Griffin here. I think this is good value given Griffin's chances to win this fight.

The rest of the lines seem pretty well in line with what I'd expect and I don't see much betting value. But here they are anyway for your viewing pleasure:

Fabricio Werdum (-875) VS Junior Dos Santos (+575)

Gray Maynard (-270) VS Rich Clementi (+210)

Thales Leites (-550) VS Drew McFedries (+350)

Spencer Fisher (-350) VS Shannon Gugerty (+275)

Dan Miller (-400) VS Matt Horwich (+300)

Hermes Franca (-240) VS Marcus Aurelio (+190)

Josh Burkman (-260) VS Pete Sell (+200)

Remember... bet at your own risk!

If I were a betting girl...

Welcome to the first installment of "If I was a betting girl" (which I am by the way... did I mention I won $230 on Forrest's victory over Rampage?)! In this post I'll be discussing the odds on some upcoming fights that I find too hard to resist. Now mind you, when it comes to MMA I like to bet on the underdogs. First off, it makes it more fun and second I find it hard to lay down $100 to win $20 on a sport where anything can happen (see Matt Serra over GSP).

I decided after my win last weekend on Forrest vs Rampage to share my thoughts on upcoming fights for those of you looking for some help in placing your bets.
** These odds were taken from Sportsbook.com on 7/10/09.

Here we go, let's start with the July 19th UFC event feature Anderson Silva:

• Anderson Silva (-600) VS James Irvin (+400) - I have to put some money on Irvin here. This is Anderson Silva's first fight at light-heavyweight, so who knows how he'll adjust to the bigger and stronger opponent. Plus, Irvin is a guy that likes to stand up and bang so he always has a shot at landing something, and, he's got power in those punches. Although standing with Anderson Silva isn't always advised, when it's James Irvin at +400 I'll take some of that action.
• Brandon Vera (-625) VS Reese Andy (+425)- Vera is definitely the favorite in this fight, but Andy is a great wrestler and a very powerful fighter. He's the kind of fighter that could take Vera down, hold him there, and land some decent shots for 3 full rounds. Although it wouldn't make for a very exciting fight, it could produce a victory fo Andy. This is Vera's first fight down at 205, but he was never that big of a heavyweight so I don't see him having a huge size advantage over Andy. I think the odds on this are so skewed because it's Andy's first fight in the UFC, but he's 7-1 with 6 fights in the IFL and was a high caliber NCAA wrestler, so he's no newcomer to competition. If Andy can get the fight to the mat consistently, I think this is a great underdog bet.

On to UFC 87 in August:

• Brock Lesnar (-275) VS Heath Herring (+215)- To be honest, I'm not quite sure why Brock Lesnar, at 1-1 in his MMA career, is favored over Heath Herring at 28-13. I would be all over this. Heath has fought the best and toughest at heavyweight, and often made it very close. He's on a new strength and conditioning program and is coming off a victory over a very big and strong Cheick Kongo, so he knows how to fight bigger and strong opponents. Herring did have some problems with a wrestler when he lost to Jake O'Brien over a year ago, but I think his experience and toughness will win this fight for him. I don't think Brock has what it takes yet to compete with a veteran like Herring.
• GSP (-265) VS John Fitch (+205)- The odds on this one aren't "great" and GSP is the man, showing he can deal with wrestlers in his victory over Josh Koshchek, but I think Fitch has the talent to make this fight really close. For that reason, I wouldn't mind dropping some money on Fitch. This isn't as good of a bet as the others, but a gut feeling.

Affliction: Banned:

• Fedor Emelianeko (-450) VS Tim Sylvia (+300)- Yes, Fedor is considered by many to be the best heavyweight ever, and even the best pound-for-pound fighter ever. But Sylvia has serious reach and a very awkward style. We saw him beat up on Nogueira's face for a few rounds before being caught in a submission, so we know he can cause a fighter fits. Sylvia definitely has the ability to use his jab and create a very slow paced fight on the feet, and thus eake out a boring victory. But a boring victory at -300 when I've got money down is pretty exciting to me. Fedor hasn't fought a quality opponent in about 18 months (disclaimer - Matt Lindland is a quality fighter, but the size difference was a little silly), so look for him to have some rust when it comes to dealing with a quality fighter as awkward as Sylvia.

So there you go, installment #1 and some thoughts on good underdogs to lay some money on. You can let me know what you think by leaving a comment! I'd love to hear your thoughts.

ESPN MMALive: Episode 5

Here's episode 5 of ESPN's MMALive. Find out if Kenny thinks Thiago Alves deserves a title shot, and if he has what it takes to beat GSP. Will NBC begin airing Strikeforce events live based on the success of CBS' "Saturday Night Fights"? What's going on with MMA officiating lately and did CBS tell them to stop fights early so they didn't get too graphic and scare the primetime audience?

All of these questions are answered and more! Oh yeah, and we get to see Kenny Florian lookin' fly in a suit!

Walking the LINE with Serra and St Pierre

Here's the Line for the Serra vs GSP (2) fight this coming sunday! Have I already said that I can NOT wait!?

           

8501 8502

MATT SERRA GEORGES ST PIERRE

+330 -480

Okay, if I were a betting girl, I'd definitely put money down on Serra. :)
The payout would buy a nice pair of shoes!