MMA Hot Stuff

If I were a betting girl...

Welcome to the first installment of "If I was a betting girl" (which I am by the way... did I mention I won $230 on Forrest's victory over Rampage?)! In this post I'll be discussing the odds on some upcoming fights that I find too hard to resist. Now mind you, when it comes to MMA I like to bet on the underdogs. First off, it makes it more fun and second I find it hard to lay down $100 to win $20 on a sport where anything can happen (see Matt Serra over GSP).

I decided after my win last weekend on Forrest vs Rampage to share my thoughts on upcoming fights for those of you looking for some help in placing your bets.
** These odds were taken from Sportsbook.com on 7/10/09.

Here we go, let's start with the July 19th UFC event feature Anderson Silva:

• Anderson Silva (-600) VS James Irvin (+400) - I have to put some money on Irvin here. This is Anderson Silva's first fight at light-heavyweight, so who knows how he'll adjust to the bigger and stronger opponent. Plus, Irvin is a guy that likes to stand up and bang so he always has a shot at landing something, and, he's got power in those punches. Although standing with Anderson Silva isn't always advised, when it's James Irvin at +400 I'll take some of that action.
• Brandon Vera (-625) VS Reese Andy (+425)- Vera is definitely the favorite in this fight, but Andy is a great wrestler and a very powerful fighter. He's the kind of fighter that could take Vera down, hold him there, and land some decent shots for 3 full rounds. Although it wouldn't make for a very exciting fight, it could produce a victory fo Andy. This is Vera's first fight down at 205, but he was never that big of a heavyweight so I don't see him having a huge size advantage over Andy. I think the odds on this are so skewed because it's Andy's first fight in the UFC, but he's 7-1 with 6 fights in the IFL and was a high caliber NCAA wrestler, so he's no newcomer to competition. If Andy can get the fight to the mat consistently, I think this is a great underdog bet.

On to UFC 87 in August:

• Brock Lesnar (-275) VS Heath Herring (+215)- To be honest, I'm not quite sure why Brock Lesnar, at 1-1 in his MMA career, is favored over Heath Herring at 28-13. I would be all over this. Heath has fought the best and toughest at heavyweight, and often made it very close. He's on a new strength and conditioning program and is coming off a victory over a very big and strong Cheick Kongo, so he knows how to fight bigger and strong opponents. Herring did have some problems with a wrestler when he lost to Jake O'Brien over a year ago, but I think his experience and toughness will win this fight for him. I don't think Brock has what it takes yet to compete with a veteran like Herring.
• GSP (-265) VS John Fitch (+205)- The odds on this one aren't "great" and GSP is the man, showing he can deal with wrestlers in his victory over Josh Koshchek, but I think Fitch has the talent to make this fight really close. For that reason, I wouldn't mind dropping some money on Fitch. This isn't as good of a bet as the others, but a gut feeling.

Affliction: Banned:

• Fedor Emelianeko (-450) VS Tim Sylvia (+300)- Yes, Fedor is considered by many to be the best heavyweight ever, and even the best pound-for-pound fighter ever. But Sylvia has serious reach and a very awkward style. We saw him beat up on Nogueira's face for a few rounds before being caught in a submission, so we know he can cause a fighter fits. Sylvia definitely has the ability to use his jab and create a very slow paced fight on the feet, and thus eake out a boring victory. But a boring victory at -300 when I've got money down is pretty exciting to me. Fedor hasn't fought a quality opponent in about 18 months (disclaimer - Matt Lindland is a quality fighter, but the size difference was a little silly), so look for him to have some rust when it comes to dealing with a quality fighter as awkward as Sylvia.

So there you go, installment #1 and some thoughts on good underdogs to lay some money on. You can let me know what you think by leaving a comment! I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Tito Ortiz at UFC 84: End of chapter, or end of story?

Coming up on the last fight of his UFC contract, Tito Ortiz finds himself as the underdog against Lyoto Machida. It’s easy to see why Tito’s the underdog, his last fight was almost a year ago (a draw with Rashad Evans), he hasn’t tasted victory since October ’06 (TKO in the rematch with Ken Shamrock), and it seems he’s been focusing most of his efforts lately on his celebrity status as opposed to his fighting skills. Along with that, Machida is one of the hottest fighters in the light-heavyweight division with impressive showing in his last few fights, and impressive wins on his pre-UFC resume.

So this begs the question, will this fight simply be the end of the “UFC chapter” of Ortiz’s career, or the end of his career all together? It’s tough to imagine an MMA world without Tito Ortiz, especially given his popularity in this sport and his ability to sell a fight. One would assume that an organization like EliteXC or Strikeforce would love to sing Ortiz, especially if he is victorious against Machida and proves he's not at the end of his fighting career. After all, who wouldn't love to see Tito V Frank Shamrock again? The pre-fight trash talking alone would be worth signing Tito to a contract.

But what if Tito loses? Questions will certainly arise regarding his commitment to the sport versus his commitment to Hollywood. Dana White said it best, "I think he has the will and the desire to be successful. He doesn't have the will and desire to be the best fighter in the world". Will Tito carry have any allure for fight fans in another organization, or will he simply be a former UFC fighter put out to pasture and picked up by another organization on the downslope of his career?

I for one think Machida is the clear favorite in this fight, but will admit I miss the days of Tito’s severe trash talking and cocky attitude. It use to be that Tito wouldn't even refer to losing a fight, now he states "win, lose or draw I'm going down swinging", that's just not the same Tito. He just doesn’t seem to have the swagger he once had. Then again, it’s hard to imagine Tito leaving the UFC on a losing note, especially given the animosity between him and Dana White.

All of these variables, both in and out of the cage, and the importance of this fight for the future of both fighters should make for a great fight. I wouldn’t miss this one for the world (and in I’ll be there in person!!!). Now the real question, I’ve got a $100 burning a hole in my pocket… Lyoto or Tito? Tito Ortiz as an underdog may be too good to pass up!

Walking the LINE with Serra and St Pierre

Here's the Line for the Serra vs GSP (2) fight this coming sunday! Have I already said that I can NOT wait!?

           

8501 8502

MATT SERRA GEORGES ST PIERRE

+330 -480

Okay, if I were a betting girl, I'd definitely put money down on Serra. :)
The payout would buy a nice pair of shoes!